Almost last-minute risers and fallers...

This week is draft week. Well, it's my draft week at least. Hell, I took vacation this week just to draft. I wanted to wait as long as I could to get the best feel for lineup, injury, and COVID-19 related information. Unfortunately, it seems when one situation clears up another, like Anthony Rendon being scratched with oblique tightness, pops up. Anyway, I'm not going to publish another 450 overall because I do all of my stuff on Word, but here are some risers and fallers beginning with one that hurts me greatly:

Based on reports from Red Sox camp it sounds like Michael Chavis (No. 166 overall) is set to begin the season in a 1B platoon. For the organization's top hitting prospect entering last season, this is a big bummer because it suggests Red Sox coaches and decision-makers haven't been impressed with his bat in Summer Training.

Chavis's swing-and-miss issues are very real, but so is the power and more future hitting ability. Who benefits? Believe it or not, Jose Peraza (No. 345 overall) had a NFBC Main Event ADP of 88 last year. 88! After some recent helium, he's up to 259th this year. Peraza tweaked his swing, and looks to be the early favorite for the everyday role at second base.

On one hand, the Red Sox fan in me wonders why not just let Chavis get the ABs if he's the future? On the other hand, Peraza's flexibility could profile all over the diamond and it wasn't long ago both the Reds and fantasy experts were very excited about him. As it stands currently, I have no issues taking Peraza around his ADP.


I was hoping more people wouldn't pick up on this in recent days, but I'm all-in on Diamondbacks SP Robbie Ray and his arm-action changes.

According to the TV feed, Ray had multiple 96 MPH fastballs. Last season, his fastball averaged 92.2 MPH. But a shortened arm action doesn't just help velocity. What it makes the biggest difference with his control and command. Lucas Giolito is the best example of this.

Players with longer arm actions, especially tall players, sometimes have difficulty repeating their action and finishing out in front well; their arms could be "late" in relationship with their plant leg and thus the long arm rushes to catch up. We know Ray's biggest issue is control. So, if he's able to cut into that, which I believe he will with these changes, he's poised for a breakout.


During a NFBC draft between January and March, someone selected Gavin Luz 29th overall and he had an ADP around 160. Today, the Dodgers announced he didn't make the Opening Day roster. Lux, a consensus top five prospect in baseball, arrived to camp late, didn't play well, and the Dodgers had no choice because they don't lack options.

Back in February and March when I first stated rankings and research, I thought Lux was definitely a top 150 player. But even before this surprising news he was heading towards a platoon near the bottom of the order. Obviously, he's undraftable now.


Unsurprisingly, Brewers lefty Brett Anderson is heading to the injured list. He does that a time or two each season. The vacant spot in the rotation has opened the door for a few guys but the door is propped open biggest for Corbin Burners. A former top prospect with one of the better sliders (insane 58.0 whiff%) in baseball, Burnes was a spin rate darling when he first broke into the bigs. But he's turned into a good example of the importance of spin efficiency, and his fastball was destroyed last season.

If he's generating more active spin with better fastball command, he could be a breakout candidate. Milwaukee is one of the better developmental organizations in baseball. So, it's a decent or better bet.

Photos courtesy AP Images

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