dustinmccomasOVERALL FANTASY BASEBALL RANKINGS: Nos. 151-175
I've given up. No, not with the rankings process. Rather, I'm not including Steamer/Razzball statistical projections with each profile. It takes a ton of time, and it's quite depressing so see so many players bunched together with oddly low numbers. If you wish to see those projections, which I encourage, click HERE. As for ADP, the sample size begins in June, which means it's a very, very small sample. However, there's simply no point in including drafts prior to the announcement of baseball's return because of the injuries, opt outs, etc.
Matthew Boyd flirted with a breakout last season.
No. 151 – Raisel Iglesias – RP – Cincinnati Reds Current NFBC ADP: 128 Razzball Player Rater projection: 118 Razzball Player Rater 2019 season: 160 Quick thoughts: Iglesias is coming off his best K and BB% of his career, and dramatically decreased his sinker usage, which is good. Because it sucked. If that trend continues, there is upside here.
No. 152 – Matthew Boyd – SP – Detroit Tigers Current NFBC ADP: 158
Razzball Player Rater projection: 131
Razzball Player Rater 2019 season: 166
Quick thoughts: Boyd finished last season with a 3.88 xFIP, 30.2 K%, 6.3 BB%, and 238 strikeouts in 185.1 innings. Only seven pitchers finished with a better K-BB%: Walker Buehler, Lucas Giolito, Shane Bieber, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and Gerrit Cole.
This is like you and your buddy discovering a secret party in New York City with Victoria’s Secret models only to discover there is some serious baggage that even a bunch of beer can’t stifle. Only six pitchers gave up more homers per fly ball, and after a dominant first half of the season, Boyd finished post All-Star break with a 5.51 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.
So, what happened? Hard to say. Boyd’s fastball velocity went from 90.8 MPH on average in April to consistently at 92.5 MPH or 92.6 MPH from June through September. And it went from .296 and .288 xwOBA to .348, .314, .367, and .289. Basically, it’s tough to decipher what happened. Perhaps it’s as simple as command. But with his K-BB% and stuff, breakout upside is real, especially if he mixes in more secondary pitches.
No. 153 – Byron Buxton – OF – Minnesota Twins
Current NFBC ADP: 133
Razzball Player Rater projection: 126
Razzball Player Rater 2019 season: 348
Quick thoughts: It’s Buxton SZN. He’s coming back from a shoulder/labrum injury, and yet everyone in March drafted him way earlier than those in February. I don’t know. He has all the tools and looked like he was about to break out last season besides, well, another injury. Recently, the Buxton family added a son, Blaze. That's an 80-grade name, but also keep in mind Buxton is likely weighing the risk of playing and the health of his family.
No. 154 – Willson Contreras – C – Chicago Cubs
Current NFBC ADP: 116
Razzball Player Rater projection: 144
Razzball Player Rater 2019 season: 169
Quick thoughts: Nice place in a good lineup. Big improvement in hard hit% last season and shouldn’t kill your batting average.
No. 155 – Kenta Maeda – SP – Minnesota Twins
Current NFBC ADP: 162
Razzball Player Rater projection: 210
Razzball Player Rater 2019 season: 140
Quick thoughts: Free from, as many fantasy analysts more famous than I have described it, Dodgeritis, Maeda should be allowed to throw as many innings he can for a team that is trying to win a world series. With a slider and changeup capable of missing bats at a high rate, Maeda’s 2018 could happen again, and he does a great job of limiting hard contact.
No. 156 – Bryan Reynolds – OF – Pittsburgh Pirates
Current NFBC ADP: 170
Razzball Player Rater projection: 174
Razzball Player Rater 2019 season: 125
Quick thoughts: The lineup sucks, but at least Reynolds hits in the best part of it. The lack of high exit velocity is a tad concerning, and Reynolds has never been a basestealer despite an above average sprint speed. That said, he’s a good bet for batting average, average homers, and enough RBI and runs scored to make him more than just an average blanket late in drafts.
No. 157 – Austin Hays – OF – Baltimore Orioles
Current NFBC ADP: 246
Razzball Player Rater projection: 254
Razzball Player Rater 2019 season: N/A
Quick thoughts: During his first cup of coffee in 2017, Hays spilled his cup and burned himself. In 2019, it was the opposite. Sure, the current projection of hitting eighth in the lineup sucks, but the Orioles have nothing to lose and are operated by smart people now. If he hits, that will change. And if/when it changes, his runs/RBI projections dramatically change with what could be a 20-homer, 10-steal profile and a batting average that worst-case scenario is probably .250.
Just know Hays did a lot of his damage on fastballs last season and didn’t handle breaking or offspeed stuff well.
No. 158 – Hyun-Jin Ryu – SP – Toronto Blue Jays
Current NFBC ADP: 151
Razzball Player Rater projection: 149
Razzball Player Rater 2019 season: 49
Quick thoughts: Yes, he is making the move to the AL East. Yes, he threw just 4.2 innings in 2016 and 82.1 in 2018. Yes, his body looks like he never missed a reverse happy hour. Ryu is kind of undervalued, though. He’s thrown 152.0 innings or more three of his six seasons in the bigs, and is coming off an 182.2-inning season with a 2.32 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 3.10 FIP.
If he makes most of his starts, value will be returned from this spot because he limits hard contact and hard contact in the air.
No. 159 – Khris Davis – UT – Oakland Athletics
Current NFBC ADP: 183
Razzball Player Rater projection: 102
Razzball Player Rater 2019 season: 343
Quick thoughts: For four-straight seasons, Davis hit .247 a ton of power. Then last season, he didn’t. It’s fair to expect something closer to the four seasons prior to 2019 because last season’s dip can be attributed to injury.
No. 160 – Edwin Encarnacion – 1B – Chicago White Sox
Current NFBC ADP: 152
Razzball Player Rater projection: 145
Razzball Player Rater 2019 season: 118
Quick thoughts: He’s another year older, which makes me feel really old because I remember joking about his E5 nickname when he was a Reds prospect. Now, he’s 37-years-old and while he won’t ever be in the conversation for a batting crown, hitting the in the middle of the White Sox lineup should mean a chance at good RBI production with power.
Last season, Encarnacion showed zero signs of slowing down as it specifically relates to his batted-ball profile.
Remember when the Indians tried to trade Kluber a year before he actually was?
No. 161 – Corey Kluber – SP – Texas Rangers
Current NFBC ADP: 111
Razzball Player Rater projection: 88
Razzball Player Rater 2019 season: N/A
Quick thoughts: A hot topic among the fantasy community, here’s the thing I keep returning to about Kluber before I even look at numbers: the Indians wanted to trade the guy before LAST season. They traded him for a marginal return prior to this season. The Indians, and the rest of Major League Baseball, were trying to tell us a sharp decline is coming. Will they be right? I’m not going to take the risk.
No. 162 – Luke Weaver – SP – Arizona Diamondbacks
Current NFBC ADP: 211
Razzball Player Rater projection: 261
Razzball Player Rater 2019 season: 349
Quick thoughts: A good athlete, Weaver returned from injury last season with almost the exact same four-seam velocity and posted a 2.94 ERA with a 3.07 FIP and numbers very similar to his strong 2017 season. The exit velocity and hard hit% numbers might cause some to overlook the increase in cutter usage – once upon a time his most discussed pitch as a prospect – that posted a .297 xwOBA.
No. 163 – Rhys Hoskins – 1B – Philadelphia Phillies
Current NFBC ADP: 118
Razzball Player Rater projection: 84
Razzball Player Rater 2019 season: 162
Quick thoughts: For the third-straight season, Hoskins’s numbers across the board declined and for the third-straight season, he increased his launch angle and K%. Maybe he heads back in a positive direction, but even his 2018 xBA was .235 and xSLG .463. Owners will get power and counting stats, but they also might get 2019 Albert Pujols too.
No. 164 – Miguel Sano – 3B – Minnesota Twins
Current NFBC ADP: 96
Razzball Player Rater projection: 120
Razzball Player Rater 2019 season: 139
Quick thoughts: It’s hard to predict where Sano will hit in the lineup, and how many games he’ll play. He’s never played more than 116 games in his season, and his body is more likely an ad for Weight Watchers than GQ. Joking aside, Sano murders the ball when healthy. He finished first in barrel% and hard hit%, and regardless of where he hits, he’ll hit in the best lineup in baseball, arguably.
No. 165 – Michael Chavis – 1B/2B – Boston Red Sox
Current NFBC ADP: 276
Razzball Player Rater projection: 262
Razzball Player Rater 2019 season: 410
Quick thoughts: Chavis doesn’t get cheated in the box, which means there will be occasional moon shots to go with a lot of swinging and missing. And the batting average could be closer to .240 than .250. However, he’s currently projected to be the starting second baseman, and Boston has already discussed playing him some in the outfield too along with first base eligibility. With a solid spot in the Boston lineup, counting stats should nice to go with the power, a handful of steals to help the hit in batting average.
No. 166 – Jean Segura – SS – Philadelphia Phillies
Current NFBC ADP: 192
Razzball Player Rater projection: 194
Razzball Player Rater 2019 season: 177
Quick thoughts: Segura, before last season, always stole a lot of bases, but never did so efficiently. And his sprint speed was below 28.0 feet per second for the third year in a row. Maybe he gets back to stealing bags again with a little pop and good average, but maybe not. He should soon add another position to his eligibility.
No. 167 – Shin-Soo Choo – OF – Texas Rangers
Current NFBC ADP: 220
Razzball Player Rater projection: 231
Razzball Player Rater 2019 season: 91
Quick thoughts: All aboard! Choo hammered the ball last season, should hit leadoff, and swiped 15 bags and was only caught once despite poor sprint speed. Yeah, at age 37, he’s old. But he’s not lining up at Luby’s yet. Did COVID-19 kill Luby’s? God, I hope not. Anyway, since 2009, he’s eclipsed 636 plate appearances eight times. Although his second-half split was noticeably down from the first, the expected stats suggest that was more bad luck than sudden decline. He won’t have a full season of 162 games to wear him down the final months in the blazing heat outdoors in Arlington.
No. 168 – Eric Hosmer – 1B – San Diego Padres
Current NFBC ADP: 207
Razzball Player Rater projection: 184
Razzball Player Rater 2019 season: 142
Quick thoughts: Since joining the Padres, Hosmer’s whiff% has gone up, but he also substantially improved his average exit velocity and hard hit% last season. When Hosmer was a prospect, his feel for the barrel and bat-to-ball skill attracted all the scouts to the yard.
He’s been working on getting the ball into the air, and I unequivocally believe he has the talent and skill to do it. If he does, suddenly he’s a much better player. If he doesn’t, he produced almost this exact draft value last season. Win, win.
During Spring Training I Hosmer was hitting the ball noticeably more in the air.
No. 169 – Kenley Jansen – RP – Los Angeles Dodgers
Current NFBC ADP: 103
Razzball Player Rater projection: 99
Razzball Player Rater 2019 season: 120
Quick thoughts: Another visitor from the Dodgers to Driveline, Jansen’s stuff has ticked up this spring, before the first spring was shut down, and we know how much Dave Roberts trusts him.
No. 170 – Nick Solak – UT – Texas Rangers
Current NFBC ADP: 253
Razzball Player Rater projection: 252
Razzball Player Rater 2019 season: N/A
Quick thoughts: This one is tough for me because Solak and Calhoun are both personal favorites, but Calhoun’s return from jaw injury means Solak’s playing time situation is murkier. However, the Rangers were discussing playing Solak everywhere, including center field, months ago. So, he’s clearly going to be in the mix, and could go from utility to two, three positions of eligibility.
From writer Robert Murray: “He was one of four players last season with an 88+ mph average exit velocity, 28+ ft/s sprint speed and .390+ OBP. The other three? Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger and Mike Trout.”
Bet on the talent. The Rangers will find the opportunity.
No. 171 – Kevin Newman – 2B/SS – Pittsburgh Pirates
Current NFBC ADP: 190
Razzball Player Rater projection: 229
Razzball Player Rater 2019 season: 132
Quick thoughts: Newman puts the ball in play at an elite level, and had a minuscule 13.9 whiff% last season. He also had a hard hit% just as minuscule at 24.4%. Newman is a former first-round pick locked into playing time but be careful because he was caught stealing eight times last season to go with those 16 steals. If the Pirates, under a new manager and general manager, slow down on the base paths, Newman becomes a batting average blanket without much else.
No. 172 – David Peralta – OF – Arizona Diamondbacks
Current NFBC ADP: 264
Razzball Player Rater projection: 168
Razzball Player Rater 2019 season: N/A
Quick thoughts: Peralta, after hitting 30 homers in 2018, needed surgery to repair his shoulder, and played just 99 games last season. Currently, he’s projected to hit cleanup versus lefties for a good team. If he plays a majority of the season, like he did in 2018 and 2017, hitting .280 with above average homers and strong RBI and runs numbers should be in play.
No. 173 – Joe Musgrove – SP – Pittsburgh Pirates
Current NFBC ADP: 217
Razzball Player Rater projection: 220
Razzball Player Rater 2019 season: 201
Quick thoughts: Musgrove had a shoulder scare recently, but pitched without any discomfort in a recent Spring Training start. If he’s healthy, and there’s no reason right now to think he’s not, the big righty has major breakout upside.
The Pirates were a shitshow in pitching development and were so far behind the times that Mitch Keller didn’t even know what FIP was. Musgrove had three pitches with 32.3% or better whiff%. With better tools to work with and a better plan, he could be a sneaky, darkhorse Cy Young candidate… if the average four-seam fastball velocity ticks back up. Musgrove's four-seamer PutAway% when avg. velo is below 93 MPH: 9.6 and 9.1% (2019); when avg. velo is above 93 MPH: 18.2 and 19.2%.
No. 174 – Madison Bumgarner – SP – Arizona Diamondbacks
Current NFBC ADP: 126
Razzball Player Rater projection: 221
Razzball Player Rater 2019 season: 127
Quick thoughts: Bumgarner is a popular fade because he’s on the decline, and moving from San Francisco to Arizona. But he’s being faded so much he’s becoming an interesting value play. If he increases his curve usage, more than a strikeout per inning and solid numbers elsewhere are possible. Arizona is one of the smartest, best developmental organizations in baseball right now. Seems like a good bet.
No. 175 – Andrew Heaney – SP – Los Angeles Angels
Current NFBC ADP: 203
Razzball Player Rater projection: 110
Razzball Player Rater 2019 season: N/A
Quick thoughts: A popular breakout pick, Heaney is kind of like Matthew Boyd if Boyd had more injury risk. I want to buy into the lefty, but his career has been all over the map.
All photos courtesy AP Images